Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services in FY 02

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file time: 2008-02-16

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Southern Region Hydrologic Services Program Goals00Current/Future  
 
 

Regional Breakout Session

July  12, 2006

Ben Weiger

Chief, Hydrologic Services 
 
 

 
 
 

Congratulations!! 

For outstanding flash flood, river flood forecast services, drought services provided to your customers this fiscal year (e.g., major flood event in TX/OK and widespread drought in the southeast U.S.)  
 
 

Flash Flood GPRA Goals 
SR Performance to date 

Official Verification (10/2006-3/2007) POD - .915 Lead Time 0070.4 min Preliminary Verification (5/07-7/6/07) 00LSRs POD - .881 Lead Time 0060.5 National GPRA Goals POD - .89 Lead Time 0048 minutes  

Congratulations to all WFO staff for their outstanding performance to  date with flash flood warning verification statistics!! 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

$34 

$692 

$56 

$445 

$871 

$5,600 

$4,969 

Tornado 

Hail 

Cold 

Lightning 

Heat 

Flood 

Hurricane 

Winter Storm 

Average Annual Deaths (1990-99): 502 

Average Annual Cost (1990-99): $13.1 Billion 

Flood 

Hurricane 

14 

193 

99 

26 

58 

57 

55 

Flood 

Heat 

$469 

Disaster Impacts

 
 
 

Hydrology Program Vision 

   Enhance regional hydrologic/water resource products and services using the latest science and technologies to meet diverse and evolving customer/partner needs.

 
 
 

SR Hydrology Program Goals 

Goals Improve and enhance existing products and services; evaluate need for existing products/services Infuse new science and technology into hydrologic operations Develop new products and services based on customer feedback/requirements Develop a better trained and informed workforce Provide more decision support/enhanced service delivery during high impact events  
 
 

Strategic Planning Teams 

 
 
 

Short-Term Projects (1-3 yrs) 

Develop regional hydrologic services program award to recognize individuals for hydrologic service/science contributions. Work closely with each state to develop criteria for adding TADD flood safety message on highway message signs Identify funding sources (FEMA, private sector, DOT grants) to place TADD signs at flood prone low water crossing locations Develop procedures to upload E-19 reports to the SR Intranet. Develop regional hydrology training plan and post it on the SR Intranet. Take advantage of new web/video training tools to deliver effective hydrologic training  for WFO/RFC staff. Work closely with Technology Infusion Branch to implement CMS/web templates for hydrology web pages in conjunction with  IT/web consolidation project.  
 
 

Short Term Projects (1-3 yrs)00WFO/RFC collaborations 

Continue collaborative efforts to implement WFO Small Basin hydrology models for fast-responding streams. Continue  collaborative efforts to define dam break scenarios for significant/high risk dams Begin region wide collaborative project to collect, store, and display low water information. Continue efforts to implement ABRFC flash flood guidance technique at SR RFCs and disseminate of RFC flash flood alert messages to WFOs. Implement river-based flood warning verification program Continue to implement AHPS at river forecast point locations  
 
 

Short Term Projects (1-3 yrs)00WFO/RFC collaborations 

USGS implementation of NAVD88 vertical datum - checklist to change datum information in flat files, database, web pages, etc. Implementation of new RFC contingency forecast process/dissemination. Use of GFE to support QPF inter-site coordination and contingency QPF grids for the RFCs. Implement short-term ensemble river forecast technique (NCRFC) in the lower Mississippi River Basin drainage and beyond? Implementation of static flood inundation map libraries at 35 or more forecast point locations displayable on the AHPS web page  
 
 

Long Term Goals (3yrs+)  

NOAA Regional Collaboration Integrated water resource theme Couple freshwater, ocean, coastal (storm/astronomical tides), and estuary models to manage water resources. Increase information exchange/partnerships between NOAA line offices, NOAA regional collaboration regions,  and between NOAA  line offices and  its partners and customers. NOAA Water Resource Program Implement distributed hydrologic model for a subset of basins and populate a database of gridded hydrometeorological information (similar to NDFD) Conduct  pilot project using USGS/NWS debris flow warning and forecast program. Participate in Community Hydrology Prediction System  (CHPS) projects. Water quality forecasting at the RFCs AHPS Continue to implement AHPS at river forecast point locations.  
 
 

Water Resources*

An Integrated Perspective 

Rivers & Streams

Reservoirs & Lakes

The Great Lakes

Wetlands

Estuaries

Coasts

Soil Moisture

Snow Pack

Ground Water

Water Quality 

*Any of the entire range of the Earth00 natural waters that are of potential use to society

 
 
 
 

Water Resources 
Initiative  

Objective: Nationally consistent, water and soil  forecasts delivered via a national digital database

Outcome: Water resources forecasts delivered to Federal, academic, public and private sector partners for critical decisions related to:

Sustainable irrigation More efficient power generation Sensible, year-long water conservation plans Rational allocation and distribution of water More cost-effective river commerce Protection of threatened and endangered species Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management Enhanced aquatic habitats  

Water 2025 - US Dept of Interior 

Builds on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 

Creates a Community Hydrologic Prediction System for the rapid transfer of collaborative research into operations

 
 
 

Algorithm

Services 

Data

Services 

Control

Services 

Display

Services 

Security

Services 

Community Hydrologic Prediction

System 

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

U.S. Geological Survey

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Environmental Protection Agency

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Tennessee Valley Authority

Bonneville Power Administration

Plus, universities, and state, regional,

      and local cooperators

Other NOAA agencies

 
 
 

Water Resources Vision: 
Integrated Products & Services 

NOAA

Federal Agencies

Tribal Agencies

   State Agencies

Local Agencies

Private Sector

Academia 

High-resolution Gridded Water Resources Product Suite 

Partners 

Applications

Drought Mitigation

Flood Potential

Flood Management

Water Allocation

Transportation

Emergency Management

Agriculture

Debris Flows

Ecosystems Management

Research 

Snowpack Properties  
Precipitation  
Soil Moisture  
Evaporation  
 
Groundwater  
River Flow  
Surface Storage Runoff Water Quality  
 
 
 
 
 

Debris Flow Watches and Warnings 

Terrain Land use/cover     
Soil type  
Precipitation Analyses  
Precipitation & Soil Moisture Forecasts  
Debris Flow Analyses Service Delivery  
 

NOAA/USGS Partnership

 

1 
 
 

Hydrologic services are important to our Nation. 

In view of these disaster statistics:

- We must work to lessen the costs of disasters by providing improved forecasts and warnings.

- We must also work to disseminate information more effectively to help people keep out of harm00 way. 

Flood damages in recent years remind us extreme events will continue to occur.  Our collective responsibility is to work together, through the weather, climate and hydrologic sciences, to provide improved operational forecasts and better information for management and mitigation activities. 

 

2 

NOAA00 National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are partnering their capabilities to best provide debris flow watches and warnings to the public. 

Key Points:

NWS will provide environmental information to the USGS who has the responsibility to warn the public of hazardous debris flows. The USGS has models to be interfaced with NWS precipitation analyses and forecasts. The USGS will use NOAA00 "watch" and "warning" levels for communicating hazards to the public. The NWS will look into the feasibility of passing the USGS warning on through NOAA NWS warning systems with attribution to USGS.  

Background:

We formed a tiger team with Gary Carter Co-Chair to develop a team charter, look at drafting an annex under the existing NOAA/USGS MOU, establish team milestones and explore developing a proof of concept in the burn areas of Southern California.

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