CMMI for Predictive Analysis

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Using the CMMI to Improve Contract Management 
 

Presented By: 

Gary Gumpright 
 

November 20, 2003

 
 
 

2  

Outline 

DCMA Overview Why Focus on Process for Contract Management The DCMA Environment Benefits of CMMI for DCMA Conceptual CMMI-Based Contract Management Framework Sample Outputs Benefits of DCMA00 CMMI Methodology  
 
 

3  

DCMA Overview 

Independent combat support agency within DoD Contract manager for US DoD & other Federal Agencies Responsible for ensuring Federal acquisition programs, supplies, and services are delivered on time, within cost and meets performance requirements Provides direct service on DoD contracts at Contract Management Offices (CMOs) throughout CONUS and Overseas  
 
 

4  

Span of Control

10,635 Professionals 800 Locations Worldwide 60 Major Field Commands $81M Reimbursable Foreign

   Military Sales

Combat Support Agency  

Scope of work

All major weapons system programs $860B in Contract 00ace Value00/i> $116B Unliquidated Obligations 320,000 Contracts 19,000 Contractors Flight Operations (1200 Aircraft/yr)  
 

Defense Contract Management Agency 

DCMA Overview

 
 
 

5  

Why Focus on Process for Contract Management  

Process is a major determinant of future program Cost, Schedule and Technical performance Process information (both process capability and process adherence) provides a leading indicator of future program performance shortfalls

    (aka Risk) 

So why not use process information as part of an integrated contract surveillance approach?

 
 
 

6  

Why Focus on Process for Contract Management 

Tri-Service Assessment Initiative (TAI) Systemic Analysis White Paper:

    00t is not an exaggeration to state that process performance shortfalls are seriously impeding successful program execution.00/font>

    000 nine out of every ten DoD programs assessed by TAI exhibit these process performance shortfalls that are negatively impacting a program00 ability to deliver an effective system000

    000 there are two primary types of process performance shortfalls, those related to process adherence, and those related to process capability.00/font> 

    00t is now time to focus on process capability rather than process adherence00/font> 

Process Performance = 0{Process Capability ^ Process Adherence}

 
 
 

7  

The DCMA Environment 

DCMA is not the 00ypical00 CMMI user Responsible for oversight NOT development Not seeking a benchmark 00aturity Level00/font> Primary goal is risk management and predictive analysis. CMMI as a tool to aid contract surveillance Risk identification, handling and monitoring Aid Variance Analysis Support Predictive Analysis Independent of supplier00 Process Improvement efforts (e.g. CMM, CMMI, etc) Need to maintain delicate balance between 00rocess00and 00roduct00/font>  
 
 

8  

At contract award:

Little known about product00UT can: Estimate 00apability00 of supplier Identify & assess risks Identify process improvement opportunities  
People Process Technology  
Contractor Performance

   - Product Quality

   - Cost & Schedule 

TIME 

As contract is executed:

Emphasis changes from 00apability00to 00erformance00/font>  

Vs PERFORMANCE! 

CAPABILITY 

Contract Surveillance needs to reflect this by: Monitoring process adherence Evaluating actual process 00erformance00/font> Continuously evaluating process capability and process improvement objectives  
 

CMMI CAN

SUPPORT

BOTH! 

Process Versus Product

 
 
 

9  

Benefits of CMMI for DCMA 

Provides a model to objectively evaluate contractors00processes Resultant process information can be used to identify risks and predict future performance (Predictive Analysis) Contractors00process capability, subsequent adherence and Performance can be continuously evaluated and monitored Provides a framework to collect, analyze and report process information (Capability, Adherence & Performance) With this information, can attempt to correlate process capability, adherence and performance  
 
 

10  

CMMI

PA 1~~~~~~~~

PA 2~~~~~~~~

PA 3~~~~~~~~ 

WBS 

PA 6 

PA 3 

PA 1 

Critical Process 

WBS # 2,4,6 00/font> 

2 

WBS # x, etc 

3 

WBS # 1,5 

1 

Program Element Mapping 

Priority 

Risk Identification 

Risk Monitoring & Reporting 

Cost 

Process 

Technical 

Schedule 

Cost 

Process 

Technical 

Schedule 

DCMA Surveillance & Predictive Analysis 

Conceptual CMMI-Based Contract Management Framework 

Risk Factors 

CMMI Class A/B/C

Appraisal

 
 
 

11  

Example Output -1 

0 

0 

PI 

00/font> 

00/font> 

TS 

RD 

RM 

1 

3 

4 

Weight PA Priority

= SUM(Mapped WBS Priority) 

00/font> 

1 

  1.2.2 

1 

1 

2 

Process Area Hits 

00/font> 

00/font> 

CMMI PA00 

00/font> 

1 

  1.2.1 

1 

1.2 

3 

  1.1.2 

3 

  1.1.1 

3 

1.1 

WBS Priority 

WBS Ref

 
 
 

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Example Output -2 

00/font> 

00/font> 

0 

0 

PI 

3 

1 

00/font> 

TS 

1 

1 

00/font> 

RD 

4 

2 

00/font> 

00/font> 

RM 

CMMI PA00 

Weight PA Priority

= SUM(Mapped WBS Priority) 

1 

  1.2.2 

Process Area Hits 

1 

  1.2.1 

1 

1.2 

3 

  1.1.2 

3 

  1.1.1 

3 

1.1 

WBS Priority 

WBS Ref 

Incremental Process Evaluation Results 

Process Measures

 
 
 

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Example Output -3 

00/font> 

00/font> 

0 

0 

PI 

3 

1 

00/font> 

TS 

1 

1 

00/font> 

RD 

4 

2 

00/font> 

00/font> 

RM 

CMMI PA00 

Weight PA Priority

= SUM(Mapped WBS Priority) 

1 

  1.2.2 

Process Area Hits 

1 

  1.2.1 

1 

1.2 

3 

  1.1.2 

3 

  1.1.1 

3 

1.1 

WBS Priority 

WBS Ref 

Incremental Process Evaluation Results 

Process Measures 

EV 

TPM 

Other Measures

 
 
 

14  

Example Output - 4

 
 
 

15  

Example Weighted Process 
Area Priorities

 
 
 

16  

Sample CMMI-based Surveillance Plan 

SW 

PI

Eng 

Resp 

00/font> 

10/03 

00/font> 

SP 1.3-1 Define Project Life Cycle  

00/font> 

00/font> 

1. How was the size of work products and tasks performed estimated  

SP 1.2-1 Establish Estimates of Work Product and Task Attributes  

1. ~~~~~~~ 

2. ~~~~~~~ 

1. ~~~~~~~~ 

2. ~~~~~~~~ 

1. Is there an up to date product-based WBS?

2. Is the planned scope of work decomposed to a sufficient level of detail to enable accurate estimates?  

SP 1.1-1 Estimate the Scope of the Project  

SG 1 Establish Estimates  

10/03 

Project Planning 

PP 

Evidence 
 

Observation / Finding 

Surveillance Questions 

CMMI Ref 

Sched 

PA Name 

PA

 
 
 

17  

Benefits of DCMA00 CMMI Methodology 

Aligns process surveillance and relates process capability to program objectives More efficient use of resources by targeting effort on the higher priority processes Process information is integrated with other key measures (such as EV, TPMs etc) Improved program insight through analysis of process capability and its impact on future program performance (Risk) Helps remove 00aturity Level Blinders00/font>  
 
 

18  

Questions

 
 
 

19  

Contact Information 

Gary Gumpright

(617) 753 4130

gary.gumpright@dcma.mil 

Matt Ashford

(703) 428 1167

matt.ashford@dcma.mil  

Kathy Lundeen

(703) 428 1830

kathy.lundeen@dcma.mil  
 

Agency: www.dcma.mil 

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